Capital Market… Perspective on the Situation in the Middle East and Investment Implications 9 Oct 202326 Apr 2024 The situation between Israel and the Palestinian territories, particularly the Gaza Strip governed by Hamas, is one of the most protracted and contentious conflicts in the world. The recent escalations,…
Asset Allocation… Fixed-Income Strategy: Implications from Recent Events 16 Aug 202316 Aug 2023 In the US, rates markets continue to take center stage with the Treasury curve bear steepening in recent weeks. Yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasuries reached new year-to-date highs…
Asset Allocation… What You Need to Know About Inflation 22 Jul 202226 Jul 2022 High inflation and the consequences of attempts to curb it are a top concern for investors nowadays. By hiking rates, policymakers can eventually slow demand to subdue price pressures, even…
Commodities… Uncertainty Clouds the Outlook 24 Mar 202228 Mar 2022 An anti-goldilocks economy refers to the global economy where policymakers are confronted with a stagflationary supply shock, which is negative for growth and will tend to push up inflation further.…
Asset Allocation… Market Recap Monday, December 24, 2018 24 Dec 2018 On global equities Volatility in global equity markets persisted in November, fears of rising interest rates, multiple trade conflicts, the end of QE, and related uncertainty about the global economic…
Global Macro… Market Recap Friday, October 13, 2017 15 Oct 2017 In Brief U.S.: PPI ticking higher and inflation not dead; small business confidence peaking with D.C. risk; jobless claims still low Eurozone: Another good month for Eurozone sentiment; structural reform…
Global Macro 对美国大选结果及对经济影响的一些看法 9 Nov 2016 美国时间11月8日,美国大选终于得出了最后的结果。特朗普大选获胜,成为美国新任总统。 全球市场: 墨西哥比索跌至历史新低,美元/日元跌超3.5%。美元指数跌幅创8月以来最大跌幅。澳元/美元日内一度跌逾4%,为英国6月脱欧来的最大日内跌幅。在岸人民币兑美元升破6.76元。澳元兑日元跌幅为2010年来最大单日跌幅。 全球股市,标普500指数期货、纳斯达克100指数期货均一度触及熔断,后略有反弹。道琼斯期货一度跌800点,后小幅收窄至3.9%。日经225指数午后开盘跌5.5%,至三个月低位。香港恒生指数跌3.12%。MSCI新兴市场股指创英国脱欧以来最大跌幅。美国10年期国债收益率跌10个基点,创英国脱欧来之最大跌幅。 现货黄金大涨4.3%,WTI跌3.71%,布伦特原油跌332%,现货白银涨幅3.5%。 在之前的辩论中,特朗普曾多次语出惊人,更让不少人觉得:特朗普就是个疯子。但事实上,我们重新回顾整理一下特朗普的政策主张,包括财政政策、外交政策、贸易政策、货币政策、移民政策、恐怖主义,以及他接受记者采访的表述,其实特朗普在共和党里是最温和的。 当选对美国经济的影响 1) 对美联储和对美联储决议的影响 美国共和党总统参选人特朗普当选,给投资者及企业带来非常大的不确定性,可能影响美联储今年的加息计划。此外,特朗普曾指责耶伦将联邦基金利率维持在低位。 2)对美国经济的影响 财政政策方面,特朗普减少军费和国际事务开支有望遏制甚至减少美国政府财政赤字。 特朗普压缩美国国内逆向歧视性福利开支,不仅直接有助于压缩政府财政支出,而且有助于提高美国居民储蓄。 移民政策方面,特朗普在竞选时曾许诺若竞选成功就遣返所有非法移民。 贸易政策领域,特朗普之前甚至宣称,如果当选总统,他要对从中国进口的商品征以45%的高关税,以保护国内产业。 对全球经济的影响: 1) 若是美国由全球化的领导者转为贸易保护主义者,可能会推高贸易成本,也对许多经济产生供给方面的冲击,很有可能导致通胀的发生。 2) 虽然特朗普主张在美国加大基础设施投资和减税,但实际上这些政策恐怕会因大幅削弱财政可持续性而难以实施,因而可能不会在很大程度上刺激美国经济。反而,他的当选使得全球最大的经济体笼罩着巨大的不确定性,这可能会打击美国及全球的投资信心。 3) 贸易伙伴的贸易盈余减少。特朗普的当选会使与美国有着大额的贸易顺差的国家的贸易盈余减少。受到影响较大的可能是中国和亚洲经济体。 4) 进一步导致美国国内避险情绪升温,利空风险资产,利好黄金、日元等避险资产。 对中国的影响: 1) 出于兑现竞选承诺的考虑,必然会做出一些象征性的姿态,预计会针对部分中国商品提高关税或设置壁垒,中美贸易摩擦将会增加。若是发生中等水平的贸易战,预计政府可能会被迫再次宽松货币政策来对冲外部冲击,从而延迟我国金融周期进入下半场,这也将继续推高我国金融风险。 2)可能加剧中国资本外流,人民币贬值压力加大。特朗普的政策可能恶化同时恶化我国经常账户和金融账户,从而加大人民币贬值压力。同时可能让中国的贸易盈余受损,经常账户的盈余可能下降。另外,也可能使得企业在中国生产组装的成本上升,从而使得我国对外商直接投资的吸引力减少。 3)特朗普的主张可能会吸引美国海外资金更多地回归国内:通过削减企业所得税,降低美国国内企业税负。从近年数据来看,短期资本流动和人民币汇率贬值预期有着较高的关联度,中国资本外流加剧后,人民币贬值压力将再次加大。
Global Macro… Market Recap 2 Oct 2016 Macro Update World GDP is likely to grow 2.5%-3.0% in 2017[1]. Developed markets is expected to continue with its 1.5% pace, while the growth and policy dynamics within the developed…
Global Macro… Market Recap 10 Sep 201612 Sep 2016 Macro Update On U.S. The U.S. job market added 151,000 jobs in August 2016. The largest gains came from several private service-providing industries, including information, financial activities, real estate rental…
Global Macro… Market Recap 1 Sep 2016 Macro Update On U.S. U.S. GDP growth was a bit more sluggish than expected in the second quarter as businesses aggressively ran down stocks of unsold goods, which offsets a…
Asset Allocation… Market Recap with Jiazi 14 Aug 2016 Economic Update Growth: The 2016 forecast for global growth remains in the 2.0%-2.5% range. The U.S. is expected to experience above-trend economic growth in the 1.75%-2.25% range[1]. U.S. employment: Nonfarm payroll rose…
Asset Allocation… Uncertainties Present Opportunities for Long-Term Investors 29 Jul 2016 Macro Update On U.S. The solid employment growth continues to support consumer spending. Inflation pressures are rising. On the other hand, the weakness in commodities has led U.S. energy and…
Asset Allocation… Market Weekly Recap 14 Jul 201614 Jul 2016 Economic Update Growth. Largely driven by less weakness in net exports and nonresidential fixed income, growth is expanding. Sub-trend growth and inflation are what markets will be pricing in over…
Global Macro… Market Commentary First Half 2016 1 Jul 20165 Jul 2016 Global Market Commentary This has been an exciting year for investors, but in a bad way. First, we had the recession scare in January following the second Chinese currency depreciation…
Global Macro… China Recent Economic Stimulus Timeline 30 Jun 2016 November 21st, 2014 – November 19th, 2015: The PBoC reduced the deposit rate by 150 bps, the lending rate by 165 bps, and the reserve requirement ratio by 50 bps…
Asset Allocation… Brexit: Major Implications and Asset Allocation Recommendation 27 Jun 2016 What Happened? Sterling weakened nearly 8%[1] on June 24, 2016 in the immediate aftermath of Brexit. Switzerland’s central bank gave a rare confirmation on June 24, 2016 that it had…
Fixed Income… Macro Themes and the Implications: Time to Pay Attention to Global High Yield Strategy (I) 15 Mar 201619 May 2016 Key Macro Themes and the Implications Low inflation: Inflation is low but it does not mean inflation is zero. The slow growth in global economy keeps inflation subdued even as…
Alternative Investments… Equity Strategies – Updated November 2015 25 Nov 201526 Nov 2015 As global economy converges to more stable rather than rapid growth, debt level and growth dynamics keep interest rates relatively low, and inflation remains muted in developed world, investors are…
Asset Allocation… 2015 Asset Allocation Themes 23 Feb 201523 Feb 2015 Asset allocation philosophy lies in three aspects: Market technicals and momentum: Market technicals can have meaningful short-term impact on asset prices. Macro fundamentals: Asset class returns are influenced by surprises…
Behavioral Finance… A Couple Lessons Learned from Recent Experience 22 Jan 201522 Jan 2015 Not only did the investing herd have the outlook for rates wrong, but it was uniformly inquiring about the wrong thing. Asset prices are often set to allow for the…
Asset Allocation… How does the current risk profile of the U.S. Aggregate Index affect the choice between indexing and active management? 9 Jan 20159 Jan 2015 Since the financial crisis, government policy and direct issuance of Treasury securities have resulted in increased duration and lower yields in the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index. These changes pose a…
Fixed Income… The “Big Squeeze” Begins 9 Dec 2014 Traditionally, there have been two primary investment vehicles available to store cash: money market funds (MMFs) and bank deposits. Both eliminate mark-to-market (MTM) volatility, removing uncertainty associated with market gyrations…
Asset Allocation… Neutral Policy Rate 17 Nov 2014 The concept of a Neutral Policy Rate has a very specific meaning in contemporary central bank practice. The neutral policy rate is the short-term interest rate consistent with full employment,…
Global Macro… A Short Market Commentary – Third Quarter 2014 13 Nov 2014 Although the Fed often stated that it had no set time frame for removing their ultra-accommodative policy (zero interest rates and QE), investors knew, given Chairman Bernanke’s exit strategy roadmap,…
Equity… Summary: Cyclical Growth and Geopolitical Risks 23 Sep 2014 In the Eurozone, expansionary fiscal policy in the form of aggregate demand support and financial sector balance sheet repair has been absent in the post-crisis period (with a few exceptions)…
Fixed Income… Summary of Thoughts: Policy Dissonance 23 Sep 201423 Sep 2014 The post-crisis economic policy mix has focused on achieving a handful of crucial outcomes: Force the financial sector and bond markets to take credit losses from the crisis early and…
Global Macro… Re-Imagination Continues: 2014 Key Internet Trends 2 Jun 20143 Jun 2014 Although the year-over-year growth rate of the overall internet users has declined, the developing markets such as India, Indonesia, and Nigeria, which were considered to be more difficult to monetize…
Alternative Investments… Private Equity Market Landscape – First Quarter 2014 4 May 201419 May 2014 The year of 2013 has been the most successful year for private equity firms since 2008, with 873 funds with an aggregate of $454 billion. In 2013, the private equity-backed…
Behavioral Finance… The Halloween Effect Revisit 4 Nov 201323 Jan 2024 Historically, stocks tend to outperform in November, stall in December and January, and then resume higher in February and March. Stock markets have seasonal effects and calendar anomalies, which challenge…
Alternative Investments… Commodities Market Commentary, Investment Process, and the Passage of Time 29 Jun 201315 Nov 2013 Commodities Market Summary Energy: As measured by the S&P GSCI indices, energy lost 1.9% in May, natural gas lost 9.4%. WTI crude oil and brent crude oil markets continued to…