Global Macro

Market Recap Friday, October 13, 2017

In Brief U.S.: PPI ticking higher and inflation not dead; small business confidence peaking with D.C. risk; jobless claims still low Eurozone: Another good month for Eurozone sentiment; structural reform tough, but Catalonia risk contained and a second wind for sentiment; Emmanuel Macron has challenged EU leaders to sort out reform of the bloc within […]

对美国大选结果及对经济影响的一些看法

美国时间11月8日,美国大选终于得出了最后的结果。特朗普大选获胜,成为美国新任总统。 全球市场: 墨西哥比索跌至历史新低,美元/日元跌超3.5%。美元指数跌幅创8月以来最大跌幅。澳元/美元日内一度跌逾4%,为英国6月脱欧来的最大日内跌幅。在岸人民币兑美元升破6.76元。澳元兑日元跌幅为2010年来最大单日跌幅。 全球股市,标普500指数期货、纳斯达克100指数期货均一度触及熔断,后略有反弹。道琼斯期货一度跌800点,后小幅收窄至3.9%。日经225指数午后开盘跌5.5%,至三个月低位。香港恒生指数跌3.12%。MSCI新兴市场股指创英国脱欧以来最大跌幅。美国10年期国债收益率跌10个基点,创英国脱欧来之最大跌幅。 现货黄金大涨4.3%,WTI跌3.71%,布伦特原油跌332%,现货白银涨幅3.5%。 在之前的辩论中,特朗普曾多次语出惊人,更让不少人觉得:特朗普就是个疯子。但事实上,我们重新回顾整理一下特朗普的政策主张,包括财政政策、外交政策、贸易政策、货币政策、移民政策、恐怖主义,以及他接受记者采访的表述,其实特朗普在共和党里是最温和的。 当选对美国经济的影响 1) 对美联储和对美联储决议的影响   美国共和党总统参选人特朗普当选,给投资者及企业带来非常大的不确定性,可能影响美联储今年的加息计划。此外,特朗普曾指责耶伦将联邦基金利率维持在低位。 2)对美国经济的影响 财政政策方面,特朗普减少军费和国际事务开支有望遏制甚至减少美国政府财政赤字。 特朗普压缩美国国内逆向歧视性福利开支,不仅直接有助于压缩政府财政支出,而且有助于提高美国居民储蓄。 移民政策方面,特朗普在竞选时曾许诺若竞选成功就遣返所有非法移民。 贸易政策领域,特朗普之前甚至宣称,如果当选总统,他要对从中国进口的商品征以45%的高关税,以保护国内产业。 对全球经济的影响: 1) 若是美国由全球化的领导者转为贸易保护主义者,可能会推高贸易成本,也对许多经济产生供给方面的冲击,很有可能导致通胀的发生。 2) 虽然特朗普主张在美国加大基础设施投资和减税,但实际上这些政策恐怕会因大幅削弱财政可持续性而难以实施,因而可能不会在很大程度上刺激美国经济。反而,他的当选使得全球最大的经济体笼罩着巨大的不确定性,这可能会打击美国及全球的投资信心。 3) 贸易伙伴的贸易盈余减少。特朗普的当选会使与美国有着大额的贸易顺差的国家的贸易盈余减少。受到影响较大的可能是中国和亚洲经济体。 4) 进一步导致美国国内避险情绪升温,利空风险资产,利好黄金、日元等避险资产。 对中国的影响: 1) 出于兑现竞选承诺的考虑,必然会做出一些象征性的姿态,预计会针对部分中国商品提高关税或设置壁垒,中美贸易摩擦将会增加。若是发生中等水平的贸易战,预计政府可能会被迫再次宽松货币政策来对冲外部冲击,从而延迟我国金融周期进入下半场,这也将继续推高我国金融风险。 2)可能加剧中国资本外流,人民币贬值压力加大。特朗普的政策可能恶化同时恶化我国经常账户和金融账户,从而加大人民币贬值压力。同时可能让中国的贸易盈余受损,经常账户的盈余可能下降。另外,也可能使得企业在中国生产组装的成本上升,从而使得我国对外商直接投资的吸引力减少。 3)特朗普的主张可能会吸引美国海外资金更多地回归国内:通过削减企业所得税,降低美国国内企业税负。从近年数据来看,短期资本流动和人民币汇率贬值预期有着较高的关联度,中国资本外流加剧后,人民币贬值压力将再次加大。

Market Recap

Macro Update World GDP is likely to grow 2.5%-3.0% in 2017[1]. Developed markets is expected to continue with its 1.5% pace, while the growth and policy dynamics within the developed markets should diverge substantially. In emerging markets, GDP growth is likely to pick up slightly from 4.5% this year to between 4.75%-5.25% in 2017[2]; as […]

Market Recap

 Macro Update On U.S. The U.S. job market added 151,000 jobs in August 2016. The largest gains came from several private service-providing industries, including information, financial activities, real estate rental and leasing, professional and business services, education and healthcare services, while the goods-producing industry shed 24,000 jobs. Employment Cost Index data was recently revised; compensation […]

Market Recap

Macro Update On U.S. U.S. GDP growth was a bit more sluggish than expected in the second quarter as businesses aggressively ran down stocks of unsold goods, which offsets a spurt in consumer spending. U.S. consumption and employment situation remain strong. U.S. stocks continue to gain, fueled in part by the Federal Reserve staying put […]

Market Recap with Jiazi

Economic Update Growth: The 2016 forecast for global growth remains in the 2.0%-2.5% range. The U.S. is expected to experience above-trend economic growth in the 1.75%-2.25% range[1]. U.S. employment: Nonfarm payroll rose 255,000 in July 2016. Significant job gains occurred in professional and business services, healthcare, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, and government sectors. June and May […]

Uncertainties Present Opportunities for Long-Term Investors

Macro Update On U.S. The solid employment growth continues to support consumer spending. Inflation pressures are rising. On the other hand, the weakness in commodities has led U.S. energy and mining firms to cut back investment in plant and equipment spending. On Europe. Although the Brexit has complicated the outlook on Europe, its growth is […]