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Market Commentary May 2016: The Financial Markets and Presidential Elections

  • Investors should be careful when making investment decisions based on expected election outcomes

投资者若结合总统选举结果而做投资决策的话,需格外谨慎

  • The stock market has generally performed well during presidential election years, particularly when the incumbent party wins

股市通常在大选年份有着不错的表现,尤其当执政党获得连任时

  • Fundamental factors, such as oil prices, corporate earnings, and monetary policy, should outweigh political developments

基本面因素,诸如原油价格、公司盈利能力以及货币政策应当超过政治发展

  • Sectors such as health care and energy could be affected by proposals of leading candidates

某些行业,比如医疗与能源行业将会受到主要总统候选人的提案的影响

The U.S. stock market has historically generated gains in presidential election years; however, we caution investors against making investment decisions based on expected election outcomes, as more traditional issues typically determine market performance.

虽然美国股市从历史长期来看在总统大选的年份都会获得正向收益,但我们建议投资者面对预期的大选结果应做出审慎的投资决策。因为传统问题通常会决定市场表现的好坏。

Global growth trends, divergent monetary policies, volatile oil prices, corporate earnings, and geopolitical tensions are among the factors that are more important than political developments. It may be tempting for investors to try to link presidential election results to market outcomes, but there are no consistent relationships between party affiliation and long-term investment success. It is fairly hard to predict the outcome of politics, and even if you get the outcome right, it is even harder to predict the market reaction, so you’re doubling up your difficulty.

全球经济增长趋势、迥异的货币政策、大幅波动的原油价格、公司盈利能力以及地缘政治的紧张局势等基本面因素对金融市场的影响比政治发展对金融市场的影响更重要。虽然投资者会尝试将大选结果与市场表现联系在一起,但政治关系与长期投资的成功并无持续性的因果关系。预测政治结果是相当困难的,即便是预测的正确,市场随着政治结果做出的反应也会增加投资人在做投资决策方面的难度。

Stock Market Has Favored Republican and Incumbent Party Victories

股市通常对共和党和执政党连任有积极反应

Average Annual Principal Return for S&P 500 Index in Presidential Election Years: 1928-2012

标普500指数在大选年的平均本金年化收益:1928-2012

Stock Market Has Favored Republican and Incumbent Party Victories

Source: Strategas Research Partners

History Provides Contradictory Clues

历史提供了矛盾的线索

Indeed, you can find evidence supporting betting on either party. On one hand, from 1945 through 2015, the S&P 500 Index generated an annualized principal return of 6.7% over the course of Republican administrations and 9.7% during Democratic administrations[1].

事实上,投资者可以找到每个党派都可以给金融市场带来利好的证据。从一方面来看,自1945年至2015年,标普500指数在共和党执政时有着6.7%的年化收益,在民主党 执政时有着9.7%的年化收益。

On the other hand, since 1928, the U.S. market has fared better during election years when Republicans have won, recording an average gain of 11.3% in Republican-year victories, compared with 3.3% when a Democrat won the White House[2]. The severe decline during the global financial crisis in 2008 was the only bear market election year during this time. The S&P 500 Index advanced in 16 of the 22 presidential election years since 1928.

另一方面,自1928年以来,美国市场在共和党获胜的大选年都会表现略好,记录了11.3%的平均收益,而当民主党获胜时只有3.3%平均收益 。市场只在2008年的大选时,受到全球金融危机的影响后,出现了严重的下降,自1928年以来,标普500指数在22个大选年有16次呈正向收益。

Further complicating the picture, the S&P 500 Index generated an average annual gain of 11.6% when the incumbent party won over this time period versus 0.3% when it lost. In the 17 presidential elections since World War II, the index gained an above-average 9.7% when the incumbent party won, compared with a below-average gain of 2.2% when it lost[3].

更加深入的来看,标普500指数在执政党获得连任时,有着11.6%的平均年化收益,而当执政党未连任时,只有0.3%的平均收益。自第二次世界大战后的17次大选,当执政党连任时,标普500指数有着9.7%的平均收益,而当执政党连任失败时,只有低于平均水平2.2%的收益率 。

Investors only have to look at last year to see why such historical results are not predictive. The third year of a presidential term has historically been the best year for market performance, yet the S&P 500 Index generated a gain of only 1.4% in 2015, including dividends. For two-term presidents, the final year in office marked the worst market performance of their eight years in office[4].

投资者只需关注去年的市场表现就能看出为何历史结果是不可用来准确预测的。从历史来看,总统任期的第三年通常是市场表现最好的一年,但2015年的标普500指数只有1.4%的增长。对连任的总统来说,其执政的最后一年通常是其8年任期中市场表现最差的一年。

Policy Changes Could Impact Markets

政策的变化会对市场产生影响

Investors would do better to focus on the individual policy initiatives represented by each candidate and how they could impact the economy and financial markets. The election could affect creditworthiness of companies operating in certain highly regulated sectors, such as energy and health care. If the new president and Congress were to change or repeal the Affordable Care Act, as some candidates have espoused, that would have implications across the spectrum of health care companies.

当投资者关注每个候选人的政策提议并发掘其如何影响经济与金融市场时,其投资策略通常会比较成功。选举结果会对那些受到严格监管的行业公司,例如能源与医疗行业,的信誉产生重大影响。如果像一些候选人倡议的那样,新任总统或国会决定更改或废除《平价医疗法案》,这会对医疗卫生公司产生深远影响。

Annual S&P 500 Price Performance in Election Years: 1928-2012

标普500指数在大选年的平均本金年化收益:1928-2012

Annual SP 500 Performance in Election Years 1928-2012

Source: Strategas Research Partners

In fact, health care stocks have been underperforming since last fall partly because the issue of drug price controls has gained momentum from both political parties. The possibility of controls is definitely making investors more nervous.

事实上,自去年秋季以来,医药股一直表现不佳,部分原因是两个党派对医药价格调控政策的出台均持支持态度。价格调控政策出台的可能性使得投资者更加紧张与谨慎。

Economic Threats

经济威胁

Most forecasters have not changed their U.S. growth estimates this year based on politics. Certainly the election outcome is not immaterial for financial markets and economic prospects. We could see more financial market volatility that could affect the economy as the campaign progresses.

今年,多数预测者因为政治原因并未改变他们对美国经济增长的预期。可以肯定的是,大选结果一定会对金融市场与经济产生影响。随着竞选的进行,我们可以预见到更大的金融市场波动,这种波动会随着竞选的进行而影响经济。

In particular, leading candidates favor free trade restrictions and more protectionist policies that could harm U.S. and global growth. In most cases, trade benefits all economies that engage in it. Generally, what trade allows is for economies to specialize in what they are good at and allocate resources well, so you get the broadest possible selection of goods and services available at the lowest prices. The market probably would react negatively to the imposition of tariffs. No one wins in a trade war.

尤其是,主要候选人支持限制自由贸易和加强贸易保护的政策,这将会对美国乃至全球经济增长产生不良影响。绝大多数情况下,贸易可以为所有参与其中的经济体带来利益。通常,贸易活动可以使经济体高度专业化,聚焦各自擅长的领域并有效配置资源,这样可以使人们用最低的价格来选购最多样化的商品和服务种类。所以,市场很有可能对关税的征收做出消极反应。 贸易战争中无人会获胜。

Monetary Policy

货币政策

Amid global economic headwinds, the Fed will continue to move gradually in its pursuit of rate normalization, with one or two additional rate hikes this year. There are not that many times during a presidential election year that it was appropriate for the Fed to raise rates. Republican George H.W. Bush went on to defeat Democrat Michael Dukakis in the general election. Democratic Fed Chair Paul Volcker also raised rates considerably during the Carter administration.

在全球经济减速的逆风中,美联储将继续逐步的推行其利率标准化的进程,并宣布今年将会有一到两次加息。美联储在总统大选年适合进行加息的情况为数不多。共和党George H. W. Bush在选举中击败了民主党候选人Michael Dukakis。民主党美联储主席Paul Volcker也在卡特政府执政时期采取了加息政策。

The big macroeconomic trends such as weak oil prices and global growth are driving rate levels. The election debates and even some of the candidates’ ideas are too far out in the future to have much impact on the interest rate picture today, and interest rates are so low globally that there is not a lot that could be done now that would cause a dramatic shift.

大宏观经济趋势,例如较弱的原油价格和全球经济增长带动了利率水平。竞选辩论与各种主张,甚至一些候选人的观点等都不会对当下利率格局产生过多的影响。此外,当今全球利率都处在非常低的水平,极少事件可以引起大幅的波动。

As the presidential campaign unfolds, speculation over how the outcome might impact markets and businesses will surely intensify. We advise advises investors to simply maintain a diversified investment portfolio that could provide reasonable returns over time regardless of the political environment.

随着总统竞选活动的展开,竞选结果带来的对市场与商业影响的投机行为一定会增多。我们建议投资者保持分散性的投资组合,这样可以维持合理的长期收益而不受政治环境的影响

With risks to global economic stability rising, investors should be compensated up front for the growing and heightened uncertainty and potential consequences of monetary policy exhaustion they face. Under a left tail scenario in which this stable disequilibrium unravels sometime and in some fashion during the secular horizon, no one has a crystal ball to determine what it would look like. The timing and precise dynamics of the eventual endgame following such a scenario are uncertain, the plausible paths are many and complex, path dependence would be the rule and not the exception, and much would depend on the timeliness and boldness of the policy, including fiscal policy. While there are myriad uncertainties, there is no doubt that a global disruption of the baseline scenario would have serious repercussions for growth, inflation and financial markets. The risks are uncertain, but they are real, and active investors can aim to put a price on them.

随着全球经济增长不稳定性的增加,投资者应当为不确定性的增多以及货币政策的耗尽而得到相应的补偿。在左尾效应下,没有人能够准确地预测未来的形势。对于这种左尾现象何时并以何种方式结束并无确切的答案,貌似可行的路径有很多且很复杂,不同路径间的相关性将会成为决定因素之一,且要结合及时准确并有胆魄的政策,包括财政政策。虽然存在着诸多不定性因素,可以肯定的是,基准情境下的全球动乱会对经济增长、通货膨胀和金融市场带来深远影响。风险是不确定的,但是却是切实存在的,主动型投资者可以利用这种不确定性的投资机会为风险定价。

[1] Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence

[2] Source: Strategas Research Partners

[3] Source: Ned Davis Research

[4] Source: Ned Davis Research

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