Market Commentary
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US Purchasing Power, Inflation and Unemployment
US consumers powered the recovery following the pandemic but high gasoline and energy prices and food and housing costs have eroded their purchasing power. Real consumption spending accelerated to 7.9% in 2021 but may ease to 2% in 2022, and then to 1% in 2023. There are already signs of an economic slowdown globally; other… Continue reading
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Uncertainty Clouds the Outlook
An anti-goldilocks economy refers to the global economy where policymakers are confronted with a stagflationary supply shock, which is negative for growth and will tend to push up inflation further. In the current market condition, inflation is “too hot,” as evidenced by the higher energy and food prices, as well as the disrupted supply chains… Continue reading
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Market Recap Monday, December 24, 2018
On global equities Volatility in global equity markets persisted in November, fears of rising interest rates, multiple trade conflicts, the end of QE, and related uncertainty about the global economic outlook weighed on sentiment and set the market on edge. Additionally, U.S. crude ended last week down 11% at $45.59, posting the worst performance since… Continue reading
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Market Recap Friday, October 13, 2017
In Brief U.S.: PPI ticking higher and inflation not dead; small business confidence peaking with D.C. risk; jobless claims still low Eurozone: Another good month for Eurozone sentiment; structural reform tough, but Catalonia risk contained and a second wind for sentiment; Emmanuel Macron has challenged EU leaders to sort out reform of the bloc within… Continue reading
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Market Recap Friday, October 6, 2017
In Brief U.S.: Economic activity in both manufacturing sector and non-manufacturing sector continued to expand in September 2017; light vehicle sales in September realized the first gain of the year; weekly jobless claims fell more than expected Eurozone: The final IHS Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index increased in September; recovery continued to firm according… Continue reading
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Market Recap Friday, September 29, 2017
In Brief U.S.: Trump gives a new “red line” for his 20% corporate tax rate; tax reform framework; consumer confidence index fell to 119.8 while data skewed by hurricanes Europe: France consumer confidence fell; both German and French business optimism was also appearing toppy; German election update Asia: S&P warns of correction as Asia bond… Continue reading
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Market Recap Friday, September 22, 2017
In Brief U.S.: FOMC meeting September 20: Fed is leaving short-term interest rates unchanged, but December Fed hike possible; QE unwind, fiscal progress? Eurozone: Eurozone upturn regains momentum in September; ZEW current sentiment situation; German general elections on September 24 U.K.: U.K. households experience the strongest squeeze on finances for three years in the third… Continue reading
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Market Recap Friday, September 15, 2017
In Brief U.S.: August NFIB small business confidence index up 0.1 month on month to 105.3; CPI surprises to the upside in August; inflation expectations continue to rise Eurozone: Earlier in the cycle, job gains are still nascent; Bank of France estimated French GDP growth of 0.5% in 3Q17; eurozone industrial production up 0.1% in… Continue reading
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Market Recap Friday, September 8, 2017
In Brief U.S.: ISM PMI up 2.5% to 58.8; ISM NMI up 1.4% to 55.3; job growth has started to slow, typical in 2H of a business cycle Euro zone: Manufacturing sector underpinned solid growth of euro zone economy U.K.: Service sector growth slipped to 11-month low China: The PBOC halted initial coin offerings Second… Continue reading
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Market Recap Friday, September 1, 2017
In Brief U.S.: Hurricane Harvey hit insurance stocks and auto giants; U.S. nonfarm payrolls preview Euro: The euro hit a multi-year high after Draghi did not comment on the currency strength U.K.: Home prices reverse monthly rise Thoughts: M&A could be the biggest beneficiary from a tax cut on repatriated profits On the U.S. As… Continue reading
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DR.CHENJIAZI ZHONG 